United States Defence and Security Report Q3 2011

The US defence market is emerging from the boom years, as there is growing consensus over the need to control spending as deficits become an ever greater worry. Leaders have already outlined some US$400bn in cuts over the coming 12 years, but it is likely that this could grow as the government seeks to limit US deficits by controlling what is one of the largest drains on federal resources. Included in cuts already unveiled are US$78bn in savings from cutting the combined strength of the Navy and Marines by 70,000 personnel, as well as billions more in savings as a result of the withdrawal of 33,000 soldiers from Afghanistan. US defence firms have already said that they are increasingly focused on overseas markets, with India's ever larger defence spending being seen as a particularly attractive target.
In terms of the Afghanistan withdrawal, Admiral Mike Mullen, America's top soldier and chairman of the joint chiefs of staff, said that he was initially unprepared to back such a large withdrawal, describing it as 'aggressive' and likely to 'incur more risk'. Nevertheless, he described maintaining large force levels as the safest course but not necessarily the 'best course'. Some 10,000 troops are set to be withdrawn by the end of 2011 and a further 23,000 by the beginning of summer 2012. US troop levels in Afghanistan had been increased significantly by a 'surge', hoping to replicate the success seen in Iraq using a similar strategy. Despite this, many observers note that success in Afghanistan has proven to be even more elusive than it had been in Iraq, despite higher troop levels.
The United States military killed Osama Bin Laden on the May 1 2011, after a hunt which stretched over a decade before even the 9/11 attacks. Bin Laden was killed in a raid by US Navy Seals on his compound in Abbottabad, Pakistan. He was killed during the operation and his body was later buried at sea. Pictures of his body have not been released, despite original assertions that they would be.
Boeing has said that India is a major market for its future efforts, according to reports from the Economic Times. This comes despite the painful failure of Boeing to be shortlisted for the current tender process on India's new multi-role combat aircraft, with the Typhoon from Eurofighter and Dassault's Rafale being selected for the US$11bn programme. Yet again it is understood that strict American controls on the transfer of technology may have played a role, with much of the European lobbying with the Indian government concerning their willingness to share technology and involve Indians closely in the production process.

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Executive Summary 5
SWOT Analysis 6
US Security SWOT 6
Political SWOT 8
Economic SWOT 8
Business Environment SWOT 9
Global Political Outlook 10
Japan After The Quake 11
Global Hotspots: Libya, Iran, Afghanistan, Korea 12
Wild Cards To Watch 16
Security Risk Analysis 19
Table: Developed States Security Risk Ratings (scores out of 100, with 100 the best) 19
Table: Developed States Terrorism Vulnerability To Terrorism Index 20
Political Overview 21
Domestic Politics 21
Table: Political Overview 22
Foreign Policy 23
Long-Term Political Outlook 26
Political Risk Analysis 30
Politics Over Policy: Hefty US Withdrawal A Risk To Progress. 30
Al-Qaeda's Quest For Relevance, And Future Attack Scenarios 33
Domestic Security Overview 40
Internal Security 40
Transit Vulnerability 43
Internal Terrorism 43
Cyber-Terrorism 44
Pandemics 44
Crime And Drugs 45
External Security Situation 45
Table: Regional Insurgent Groups – US-Designated Foreign Terrorist Organizations (FTOs) 45
Quadrennial Defense Review (QDR) 47
Iran 48
North Korea 50
The Afghanistan Campaign 51
Iraq 53
Yemen 54
Armed Forces And Government Spending 55
International Deployments 59
Table: Foreign Deployments 59
Afghanistan: Trying To End The Stalemate 59
IEDs – More Deadly 64
Iraq – Drawing Down, But What Next? 65
Casualties 70
Weapons Of Mass Destruction 71
Nuclear And Missile Defence Policy 72
Market Overview 75
Arms Trade Overview 78
New Markets 81
Industry Trends And Developments 83
Defence And Procurement Trends And Developments 87
Major New Products And Technical Developments 87
Industry Forecast Scenario 96
Armed Forces 96
Table: US Armed Forces Personnel, 2000-2008 (‘000) 96
Table: US Armed Forces – Available Manpower For Military Service, 2008-2015 (aged 16-49) 96
Government Expenditure On Defence Industry 97
Table: US Armed Forces Defence Expenditure, 2008-2015 98
Table: Defence Expenditure Scenario – Changing % Of GDP, 2008-2015 (US$mn) 98
Defence Trade .104
Table: US Defence Exports, 2008-2015 (US$mn) .104
Table: US Defence Imports, 2008-2015 (US$mn) .104
Table: US Defence Trade Balance, 2008-2015 (US$mn) 105
Macroeconomic Outlook 105
Table: United States - Economic Activity 112
Company Profiles 113
Boeing .113
General Dynamics 117
L-3 Communications 120
Lockheed Martin 124
Northrop Grumman .128
Raytheon 131
BMI Methodology 134
How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts 134
Defence Industry 134
City Terrorism Rating .135
Table: Methodology .137
Sources 138
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