United States Tourism Report Q3 2011

BMI forecasts the number of arrivals to the US will reach nearly 57.9mn in 2011, topping 68.9mn by 2015. In 2009, the US had 54.9mn arrivals and 23.8mn of those were from overseas. The number of arrivals is estimated to have increased to 55.7mn in 2010. The majority of arrivals to the US come to the country for leisure purposes, with 11.6mn in 2010. In 2011, a slight increase in leisure arrivals is forecast, to 11.8mn, and this is expected to rise to 14.5mn by 2015.
Once in the US, there are many different attractions for tourists. The National Park System alone includes 392 areas covering more than 84mn acres. These areas include national parks, monuments battlefields, historical parks, military parks, rivers, trails and the White House. In 2009, according to the National Park Service, 285.6mn recreational visitors went to the national parks. The country has 20 (eight cultural and 12 natural) UNESCO World Heritage sites. Aside from its natural beauty and the cultural sights, the US is home to some of the world’s most famous cities, from New York to Los Angeles. There is plenty to see and do for every type of visitor and the country’s large size and different climates mean that any time of year is a good time to visit.
The Deepwater Horizon oil spill in the Gulf of Mexico affected arrivals in to the US in the short term. The spill began on April 20 2010 and BP, which owns the project, stopped the leak, through which an estimated 53,000 barrels per day were escaping, by capping the wellhead on July 15. It was reported that many tourists cancelled their stays along the coasts of Louisiana, Mississippi and Alabama as oil reached the beaches. These states and Florida, where the Panhandle region was affected, are working to promote beaches that have not been affected. President Barack Obama was encouraging Americans to travel to the gulf in the summer and his family has taken numerous trips to the region to show that there is no need to fear the oil spill. The US Travel Association estimated that the economic impact could be as great as US$23bn over a three-year period.
The top three source regions for inbound tourism to the US are North America, Latin America and Europe. Although North America and Latin America have swapped back and forth between first and second position in previous years, BMI forecasts that from 2011 North America will be the leading region. Unsurprisingly, the two leading tourism markets for the US are Canada and Mexico, with the UK in the third place. In 2011, arrivals from Canada, Mexico and the UK are forecast to total 18.9mn, 14.7mn and 4.2mn respectively.
In 2011, nearly 10.0mn people are expected to embark from the US onboard a cruise ship, in comparison to 14.2mn globally. The cruise industry is growing and BMI forecasts that 12.4mn people will take a cruise from the US in 2015, while 17.8mn will to do so worldwide. Passenger and cruise line expenditure is also on the rise, with US$21.2bn forecast to be spent in 2011, rising to US$30.5bn by 2015.
Outbound departures by US residents have been climbing since 2001, when 67.0mn people left the country. In 2011, it is forecast that 75.6mn will depart, rising to 82.9mn by the end of the forecast period. The top three destination regions for US tourists are Latin America, North America and Europe, with 38.0mn, 15.3mn and 13.0mn people forecast to visit those regions respectively in 2011. The three leading country destinations are Mexico, Canada and the UK. In 2011, 26.9mn American tourists are forecast to visit Mexico, while 15.3mn and 3.3mn are expected to visit Canada and the UK respectively.

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Executive Summary . 5
SWOT Analysis 7
US Tourism SWOT 7
US Political SWOT .. 7
US Economic SWOT 8
US Business Environment SWOT .. 8
Industry Forecast Scenario .. 9
Arrivals . 9
Table: Arrivals Data, 2007-2015 (‘000) 9
Expenditure .. 10
Table: Travel And Tourism Expenditure Data, 2007-2015 10
Inbound Tourism 13
Table: Tourist Arrivals, 2007-2015 .. 13
Outbound Tourism 14
Table: Outbound Tourism Data, 2007-2015 . 14
Table: Expenditure By US Residents Abroad, 2007-2015 .. 15
Domestic Tourism . 16
Table: Domestic Travel Data, 2007-2015 (‘000) 16
Market Overview – Travel 18
Commercial Airlines 18
Global Oil Products Price Outlook .. 19
Table: Oil Product Price Assumptions, Q410-Q411 (US$/bbl) 19
Table: Oil Product Price Data And Forecasts, 2008-2015 (US$/bbl) .. 22
Market Overview – Hospitality . 24
Hotels .. 24
Cruises 24
Table: Cruise Industry Data, 2007-2015 25
Security Risk Analysis . 26
Developed States Security Risk Ratings . 26
Table: Developed States Security Risk Ratings 26
Table: Developed State Terrorism Vulnerability To Terrorism Index 27
The US’ Security Risk Ratings 27
City Terrorism Ratings .. 30
Table: BMI Americas City Terrorism Index .. 31
Global Assumptions . 32
Table: Global Assumptions, 2009-2015 .. 32
Table: Global And Regional Real GDP Growth, 2010-2013 (% change y-o-y) 33
Table: Selected Exchange Rates, 2010-2013 (average) .. 33
Developed States . 34
Table: Developed States’ GDP Growth, 2010-2013 (% change y-o-y) . 35
Emerging Markets . 36
Table: Emerging Markets’ GDP Growth, 2010-2013 (% change y-o-y) .. 37
Consensus Forecasts. 38
Table: Bloomberg Consensus GDP Growth Forecasts, 2011-2012 (% change y-o-y) .. 38
Company Profiles 39
Carnival Corporation .. 39
Marriott International .. 39
United Continental Holdings 40
Wyndham Hotel Group 40
BMI Methodology 41
How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts .. 41
Tourism Industry . 41
City Terrorism Ratings .. 42
Table: City Terrorism Rating Methodology .. 44
Sources .. 44
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