BMI projects Venezuelan IT spending will decline in US dollar terms to about US$1.7bn by 2015. The steep devaluation of the bolívar for non-essential imports such as computers depressed Venezuelan IT spending in 2010 as consumers grappled with high inflation and the resulting erosion of real wages. In 2010 PC market growth lagged behind that reported elsewhere in Latin America due to the devaluation and negative economic environment.
However, there were still areas of opportunity with continued investment by small- and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs), due in part to a government tax subsidy. There will continue to be spending by the energy, retail and financial services sectors.
Venezuela is one of the smaller markets in its region, but a rather low PC penetration rate of less than 12% indicates the underlying potential for growth. Government policies such as the promotion of opensource software will continue to shape the market. The private business sector will offer opportunities, as companies invest in service platforms and continued deployment of fixed and mobile broadband will help drive spending across several market segments.
Industry Developments
In 2010 Venezuela's government organisations continued to work on developing open-source solutions for various sectors. Venezuela's open-source IT development and investigation centre Cenditel announced in July it was working on a solution for agricultural industry processes such as watering systems. The aim of the solution is to monitor and control areas such as watering systems, as well as lighting and temperatures in indoor facilities.
Meanwhile, Argentina's INTI (Instituto Nacional de Tecnologia Industrial) said in August it was developing an open-source management software solution for SIGFAS, a state-run institution that manages state-sector factories in Venezuela.
As of October 2010, it was estimated that the government had purchased around 850,000 computers through its computers-for-schools programme. In 2010, the Venezuelan government aimed to supply schools with 350,000 low-cost netbooks. The government is also assembling its own laptops as part of its educational programme, Canaima Educativo.
Competitive Landscape
Microsoft aimed to increase the amount of business generated from the Venezuelan government during its fiscal year 2010, which began in July 2009. Microsoft claimed to have achieved double-digit growth in Venezuela in fiscal 2009 and aimed to replicate this achievement in fiscal 2010. In 2009 Microsoft Venezuela created a new unit to focus specifically on public sector accounts.
Telecoms operators have emerged as a key channel for brand-PC sales in Venezuela. In 2010, Venezuelan mobile operator Digitel launched 3G services and hoped to build on its partnership with Chinese PC vendor Lenovo. In 2009, Digitel launched a broadband package bundled with a Lenovo netbook inclusive of a modem for 3G service. The packages cost VEB3,249 (about US$1,500). Local PC vendor Siragon was the first company to launch netbooks in Venezuela. The company targeted netbooks as a priority as part of its plan to achieve 30% growth in revenues. The company estimated it was on course to sell 80,000 desktops and 50,000 laptops in Venezuela in 2009.
Computer Sales
BMI projects Venezuela's PC market growth will continue to offer opportunities, despite a difficult trading context in terms of of currency devaluation and a sharp deterioration in consumer and business confidence. The overall market is expected to be worth US$1.2bn in 2011, with the US dollar value declining to the US$1.1bn mark by 2015. Computer hardware sales in some parts of the private sector have been supported by a tax subsidy for SME technology investments.
The current level of computer penetration is estimated at about 6% and is expected to reach almost 18% by 2013. The main long-term sales driver is greater affordability, partly as a result of cheap computer programmes and the government's initiative to manufacture low-cost 'Bolivarian' computers.
Software
Venezuela's software market is projected at US$314mn in 2011. Software revenues are expected to hit negative growth in 2010 due to rapidly declining business confidence in the private sector, and a relatively high and apparently increasing software piracy rate. However, BMI forecasts the addressable market will grow at a CAGR of 2% to about US$333mn by 2015.
The market landscape is likely to be shaped by the government's drive to promote open-source software.
However, enterprises in sectors such as retail, distribution, telecoms, financial services and export companies should provide potential opportunities for proprietary software vendors. Meanwhile, the economic crisis encouraged smaller Venezuelan companies to look closer at cloud computing models such as software-as-a-service (SaaS.)
IT Services
Venezuela's IT services market is projected at US$272mn in 2011. By regional standards, the percentage accounted for by services in Venezuela's hardware-dominated IT market is much lower than average, at about 16%. In many countries, such as Brazil, services account for more than 30% of spending. About 75% of demand will come from the large company sector, with the oil sector still significant, despite the fall in oil prices. Venezuela's banks and telecoms operators also continued to spend in 2009 as they launched new platforms and services.
E-Readiness
With the number of telecentres continuing to increase and the availability of internet services expanding, it is projected that internet usage will continue to rise at a strong pace in Venezuela. Wireline services seem to dominate, but there is potential for wireless broadband to become a significant driver of broadband growth.
Because of the low levels of internet access in the country, the Venezuelan government has generally been slow to launch e-services. The recent decision by the government in 2008 to launch a consultation on a new telecoms law to promote competition may drive progress. The country has fast-growing mobile penetration and has also been launching fixed-wireless services such as Wi-Fi and the Korean technology WiBro.
The Venezuelan government expects to implement digital TV by 2012, with digital and analogue technologies coexisting for a five-year period.
E-Government
The government is committed to improving e-use in the public sector and reducing the digital divide. The development of e-infrastructure is also seen as one method to fight corruption in the public sector. Telecom Venezuela is working with the government on a project called Telepolítica, which involves using information and communication technology (ICT) for local development projects. Back in 2008 state-owned telecoms company Telecom Venezuela signed a co-operation agreement with the Comptroller General's Office (CGR) and the National IT Institute (CNTI) to help build ICT infrastructure for the CGR and other public bodies.
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