Vietnam Oil and Gas Report Q4 2011

The latest Vietnam Oil & Gas Report from BMI forecasts that the country will account for 1.35% of Asia Pacific regional oil demand by 2015, while providing 5.02% of supply. Regional oil use of 26.07mn barrels per day (b/d) in 2010 is forecast to rise to around 30.22mn b/d by 2015. Regional oil production was around 7.92mn b/d 2010. It is set to decrease to 7.88mn b/d by 2015. Oil imports are growing rapidly, because demand growth is outstripping the pace of supply expansion. In 2010, the region was importing an average 18.15mn b/d. This total rises to an estimated 22.34mn b/d in 2015. The principal importers will be China, Japan, India and South Korea. By 2015 the only net exporter will be Malaysia.
In terms of natural gas, in 2010 the region consumed around 513.3bn cubic metres (bcm) and demand of 664.9bcm is targeted for 2015. Production of 406.0bcm in 2010 should reach 556.7bcm in 2015, implying net imports falling from around 112.3bcm to 111.8bcm. Vietnam’s share of gas consumption in 2015 is put at 2.40%, while its share of production is estimated at 3.77%.
Global GDP growth in 2011 is forecast at 3.2%, down from 4.3% in 2010. Growth in the eurozone should be marginally higher than 2010, while US and Chinese economic expansion will slow and Japan’s growth will be negative, reflecting the devastating earthquake and tsunami in March 2011. Our oil price assumption for 2011 is US$101.90 per barrel (bbl) for the OPEC basket, falling to US$97.50/bbl in 2012. Vietnamese real GDP growth in 2011 is forecast by BMI to be 6.3%, with an assumed average annual 7.0% increase in 2011-2015. Exploration success has been on the rise in Vietnam, with a growing number of international oil companies (IOCs) teaming up with PetroVietnam and finding and developing hydrocarbon resources – particularly gas. We expect that oil and gas liquids production of 407,000b/d in 2011 will ease back to 395,000b/d by 2015. Consumption is forecast to increase by around 5-7% per annum to 2015, implying demand of 408,000b/d by the end of the forecast period. Gas production is forecast to increase from the estimated 2011 figure of 9.0bcm to 21.0bcm by 2015 – providing a basis for exports.
Between 2011 and 2020, we are forecasting a decline in Vietnamese oil production of 23.0%, with crude volumes peaking at just under 407,000b/d in 2011, before slipping to 313,000b/d by 2020. Oil consumption between 2011 and 2020 is set to increase by 69.7%, with growth ranging from 5-7% per annum and the country using 554,000 b/d by 2020. Gas production is expected to rise from an estimated 9.0bcm in 2011 to 24.0bcm in 2020. We see Vietnam’s net gas export potential turning into modest imports by the end of the period on the back of rising demand and steady output in the period 2016-20. Details of BMI’s 10-year forecasts which provide regional and country-specific projections can be found at the end of this report.
Vietnam now takes joint seventh place, alongside South Korea, in BMI’s composite Risk/Reward Ratings table, which reflects largely its strong upstream position. The country holds fourth place, behind India, in BMI’s updated upstream ratings, with its ranking reflecting a reasonable resource position, better-thanaverage growth outlook, attractive licensing terms and an IOC-friendly competitive environment. Vietnam takes joint 13th place, alongside Taiwan, in BMI’s downstream ratings, reflecting its modest (but growing) refining capacity, above-average oil and gas demand growth outlook and low level of retail site intensity

[Studien Infos ausblenden]

Executive Summary 7
SWOT Analysis 9
Vietnam Political SWOT 9
Vietnam Economic SWOT 10
Vietnam Business Environment SWOT 11
Vietnam Energy Market Overview 12
Regional Energy Market Overview 13
Oil Supply And Demand 13
Table: Asia Pacific Oil Consumption (000b/d) 13
Table: Asia Pacific Oil Production (000b/d) 14
Oil: Downstream 15
Table: Asia Pacific Oil Refining Capacity (000b/d) 15
Gas Supply And Demand 16
Table: Asia Pacific Gas Consumption (bcm) 16
Table: Asia Pacific Gas Production (bcm) 17
Liquefied Natural Gas 18
Table: Asia Pacific LNG Exports/(Imports) (bcm) 18
Regional Risk/Reward Ratings 19
Asia Pacific Region 19
Composite Scores 20
Table: Regional Composite Risk/Reward Rating 20
Upstream Scores 21
Table: Regional Upstream Risk/Reward Rating 21
Vietnam Upstream Rating – Overview 21
Vietnam Upstream Rating – Rewards 22
Vietnam Upstream Rating – Risks 22
Downstream Scores 23
Table: Regional Downstream Risk/Reward Rating 23
Business Environment 24
Legal Framework 24
Infrastructure 26
Labour Force 26
Foreign Investment Policy 28
Tax Regime 30
Security Risk 31
Industry Forecast Scenario 32
Oil and Gas Reserves 32
Oil Supply And Demand 32
Gas Supply And Demand 33
Refining/Oil Products Trade 34
Revenues/Import Costs 35
Table: Vietnam Oil And Gas – Historical Data And Forecasts 36
Other Energy 37
Table: Vietnam Other Energy – Historical Data And Forecasts 37
Key Risks to Forecast Scenario 37
Long-Term Energy Outlook 37
Oil and Gas Infrastructure 38
Oil Refineries 38
Oil Storage Facilities 40
Gas Pipelines 40
Macroeconomic Outlook 42
Table: Vietnam – Economic Activity, 2008-2015 44
Competitive Landscape 45
Executive Summary 45
Table: Key Players – Vietnam Oil And Gas Sector 46
Overview/State Role 46
Licensing And Regulation 47
Government Policy 48
International Relations 49
Table: Key Upstream Players 49
Table: Key Downstream Players 50
Company Monitor 51
PetroVietnam 51
BP Vietnam 56
Petronas Vietnam 59
Zarubezhneft 62
Vietgazprom – Summary 65
ConocoPhillips – Summary 65
Idemitsu Kosan – Summary 66
Korea National Oil Corporation – Summary 66
Chevron – Summary 67
Talisman Energy – Summary 67
Premier Oil – Summary 68
Soco International – Summary 69
Total – Summary 69
Petrolimex – Summary 70
Others – Summary 70
Oil and Gas Outlook: Long-Term Forecasts 73
Table: Asia Pacific Oil Consumption (000b/d) 73
Regional Oil Supply 74
Table: Asia Pacific Oil Production (000b/d) 74
Regional Refining Capacity 75
Table: Asia Pacific Oil Refining Capacity (000b/d) 75
Regional Gas Demand 76
Table: Asia Pacific Gas Consumption (bcm) 76
Regional Gas Supply 77
Table: Asia Pacific Gas Production (bcm) 77
Methodology And Risks To Forecasts 78
Glossary Of Terms 79
Glossary Of Vietnamese Oil And Gas Fields 80
Risk/Reward Ratings Methodology 81
Ratings Overview 81
Table: BMI’s Oil & Gas Business Environment Ratings – Structure 82
Indicators 82
Table: BMI’s Oil & Gas Upstream Ratings – Methodology 82
Table: BMI’s Oil & Gas Business Environment Downstream Ratings – Methodology 83
BMI Methodology 85
How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts 85
Energy Industry 85
Cross checks 86
Sources 86
[Inhaltsverzeichnis ausblenden]