Vietnam Tourism Report Q3 2011

Strong Beginning To 2011 Figures released by the Vietnam National Administration of Tourism (VNAT) in May showed that the tourist industry performed strongly in the first four months of the year, following on from a highly positive 2010. Tourist arrivals in the first four months totalled 1.97mn, representing a year-on-year (y-oy) increase of 10.5%. This follows an extremely positive performance in 2010, when arrivals grew by almost 40% y-o-y. This in itself was a statistical rebound from a poor year in 2009, with the 10% growth of the first four months of 2011 indicating that growth has now returned to pre-2008 levels.
Growth in April was at a slightly lower rate, at 6.3%, reflecting a particularly good performance in that month the previous year. In that month, most markets registered arrivals growth, most noticeable in Japan (14.9%), the US (14.7%), Cambodia (6.2%) and China 3.9%. This indicates that Cambodia is positioning itself well for regional tourism, benefiting from its proximity to several major markets.
Cruise Sector Recovers In 2010 Vietnam’s cruise sector recovered in 2010, following a poor performance in 2009. Although overall sector figures were not available, Vietnamese tour companies all reported a significant improvement in arrivals in 2010, which they noted had carried over into 2011. In particular, Saigontourist estimated that it had served 20,000 cruise arrivals in the first five months of the year. This comes after a poor 2009 performance, with arrivals by sea falling by 57.1% y-o-y in the first 11 months of the year. This was partly the result of the overall slowdown in the tourist industry but it also reflects long-term underinvestment in the cruise industry. While tour groups are still calling for the government to increase investment in the sector, particularly in terms of the construction of new terminals, greater state funding seems unlikely given the current relatively low proportions of cruise arrivals.
Vietnam Airlines Plans Expansion The reviving tourist sector has encouraged national carrier Vietnam Airlines to step up its expansion plans. The airline announced in May that it will expand its fleet by 34 aircraft by 2015. Of these, eight will be hired, while the airline will buy 26 A321s. The funding for this expansion has come largely from private investors, rather than the usual loans from the government. The US$457mn loan was made by HSBC, Citigroup and DBS and is supported by a sovereign guarantee from the government, The involvement of private investors in the airline’s financing may mark another stage towards the oftdelayed sale of a stake in the airline, which the government indicated in early 2011 could be back on the table.

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Executive Summary . 5
SWOT Analysis 6
Vietnam Tourism SWOT 6
Vietnam Political SWOT 7
Vietnam Economic SWOT . 8
Vietnam Business Environment SWOT 9
Industry Forecast Scenario 10
Arrivals .. 10
Table: Arrivals Data, 2007-2015 (‘000) . 10
Expenditure .. 11
Table: Tourist Expenditure And Economic Impact, 2007-2015 11
Inbound Tourism 12
Table: Tourists Arrivals By Region, 2007-2015 .. 12
Table: Tourist Arrivals By Country, 2007-2015 (‘000) 12
Outbound Tourism 13
Table: Outbound Tourism Data, 2007-2015 . 13
Table: Resident Departures By Country, 2007-2015 (‘000).. 13
Market Overview – Travel 14
Commercial Airlines 14
Low-Cost Airlines .. 15
Global Oil Products Price Outlook .. 17
Table: Oil Product Price Assumptions, Q410-Q411 (US$/bbl) 17
Table: Oil Product Price Data And Forecasts, 2008-2015 (US$/bbl) .. 20
Market Overview – Hospitality . 22
Accommodation . 22
Regional Case Study: InterContinental Hotels Group (Asia Pacific) . 24
Gaming .. 24
Infrastructure .. 25
Cruises 26
H1N1 And H5N1 Update .. 27
Business Environment Outlook .. 29
Table: Asia Travel And Tourism Business Environment Ratings . 29
BMI’s Security Ratings .. 30
Table: Asia Pacific Regional Security Ratings . 30
Table: Asia Pacific State Vulnerability To Terrorism Index . 31
Vietnam’s Security Risk Ratings . 31
City Terrorism Ratings .. 32
Table: BMI’s Asia City Terrorism Index . 33
South East Asia Security Overview .. 34
Global Assumptions, Q311 46
Table: Global Assumptions, 2009-2015 .. 46
Table: Global And Regional Real GDP Growth, 2010-2013 (% change y-o-y) 47
Table: Selected Exchange Rates, 2010-2013 (average) .. 47
Developed States 48
Table: Developed States’ GDP Growth, 2010-2013 (% change y-o-y) . 48
Emerging Markets. 49
Table: Emerging Markets’ GDP Growth, 2010-2013 (% change y-o-y) .. 50
Consensus Forecasts 51
Table: Bloomberg Consensus GDP Growth Forecasts, 2011-2012 (% change y-o-y) .. 51
Company Profiles 52
Huong Giang Tourist Company .. 52
Saigontourist . 53
Vietnam Airlines . 54
BMI Methodology 56
How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts .. 56
Tourism Industry . 56
Tourism Ratings – Methodology . 57
Table: Tourism Business Environment Indicators . 58
Table: Weighting Of Components .. 59
City Terrorism Ratings .. 59
Table: City Terrorism Rating Methodology .. 61
Sources .. 61
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